New Export Signal to us! Why are US importers stocking up again?

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New Export Signal to us! Why are US importers stocking up again?


The peak season in ports on the west coast of the United States is earlier than usual.
The Red Sea crisis has strained capacity and pushed up freight rates, but why would U. S. Importers start stockpiling now?
According to Matt Priester, president of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers Association of America, freight rates are higher than they were more than two years ago. For one thing, while some of the Biden administration's new tariffs will not directly affect the shoe industry, “We think capacity is already being stretched to bring in products before the tariffs go into effect on August 1”
“There is also the question of whether former President Donald Trump will win in November,” Priester said, explaining that Donald Trump's campaign had proposed higher tariffs, this has prompted many members of the footwear distributors and Retailers Association in the United States to consider bringing their products into the United States before a decision could be made to raise tariffs.
Donald Trump's tax ideas involve a number of countries and regions. In the near future, “If Donald Trump wins, a 10 per cent tariff across the board and a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese imports could change the landscape and the future of Los Angeles Harbor,” said Gene Seroka, executive director of China, in response to questions about the turbulence in global shipping lanes and tariff uncertainty at a briefing
“But since Donald Trump first imposed the tariffs in 2018, we've been pretty flexible and we've certainly been out there raiding goods,” he said.
Roger, a longtime california-based U.S. transportation industry insider, said one factor influencing importers' decisions about restocking is the election.

“If Donald Trump is elected, he may impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, not necessarily 60 per cent, but there is a strong possibility of additional tariffs. The tariffs would have a direct impact on U. S. retail prices, especially at a time of high inflation. As a result, importers are likely to stock up ahead of potential tariff changes,” he explained.
US west coast trade is growing strongly

In the first half of the year, trade at ports on the US West Coast grew strongly.
The Port of Los Angeles, California, processed 4.7 m 20ft containers in the first half of the 2024, up 14.4 per cent on the same period last year, according to the latest figures from Los Angeles Harbor.
SELOKA said lower inflation, rising wages and a strong job market had stimulated consumer spending, leading to stable freight volumes, “I think we will see this pattern continue as the third quarter comes,” he said.
Total throughput in neighbouring Long Beach Harbor also hit an all-time high in June, with inbound container throughput at its highest level since mid-2022. In the first half of the 2024, Long Beach Harbor's total container traffic was up 15% from the same period last year.
“We are regaining market share,” said Mario Cordreaux, Long Beach Harbor's chief executive, “And with the shipping season coming up, consumer spending is driving goods to our docks. I think there will be moderate growth in the second half of the 2024.”
The run-up to September was not the traditional peak season, which came earlier than usual on the west coast because of concerns about the imposition of more tariffs on Chinese goods by the United States and the impact of worker strikes at ports along the east coast and Gulf Coast.
On May 14, local time, the US side released the results of a four-year review of the additional 301 tariff imposed on China, announcing that it would be based on the original 301 tariff imposed on China, further increase tariffs on imports of electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, photovoltaic cells, key minerals, semiconductors, as well as steel and aluminium, port cranes, personal protective equipment and other products from China.
Among them, new tariffs targeted at the 2024 will start on August 1 this year, and those targeted for 2025 and the 2026 will start on January 1 that year.
On May 14, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce issued a statement on the results of the four-year review of the 301 tariff imposed by the United States on China, saying that China firmly opposed and made solemn representations. A spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce said that due to domestic political considerations, the US side abused the 301 tariff review process to further increase the 301 tariff imposed on some Chinese products, politicizing and instrumentalizing economic and trade issues, is a typical political manipulation, which the Chinese side expresses strong dissatisfaction. The WTO has already ruled that 301 tariffs violate WTO rules. Instead of rectifying the situation, the US side made repeated mistakes.
A cloud of tariff uncertainty hangs over Europe
Importers are also worried about Donald Trump's proposed tariffs.
In his latest interview, Donald Trump said he would impose a 10 per cent across-the-board tariff on imports from other countries and complained that foreigners were not buying enough American goods.
“The 'European Union' Sounds Lovely,” Donald Trump says. “We Love Scotland and Germany and we love all these places but beyond that they treat us badly.”
He cited Europe's reluctance to import American cars and agricultural products as the main reason for the trade deficit of more than $200 billion, which he described as an important measure of economic fairness.
He focused on Germany and cars and recounted a conversation with Merkl, then German chancellor. “Angela, how many fords or Chevrolets are there in the centre of Munich right now?” He replies in MERKL's German accent. “Oh, I don't think there are many.”
“Let's just say there are none,” he replied.
“They treat us badly but I'm changing it, changing the culture,” Donald Trump added
In a campaign speech on March 17, Donald Trump even said that “We will impose a 100 per cent tariff on every imported car”, although Donald Trump did not specify what the duties would be, nor is it clear whether Donald Trump is taxing only imported cars or including parts.
Cui Hongjian, director of the Beijing Foreign Studies University's European Union and Regional Development Research Centre, said Donald Trump had raised the issue in his first term from the point of view of car tariffs. It may have something to do with his childhood memories of how the rise of the European Car Industry Hit the American industry, leaving many workers out of work. So if he returns, he is likely to continue this policy.
“On the European side, I think there will be a bargaining strategy. They can come up with a package that adjusts and balances the interests of other parties to mitigate the impact of tariffs,” he said, “Moreover, Europe is likely to shift the conflict outward. For example, now that China has become the world's largest car exporter, Europe could use this to shift the focus to China as a shield against Trump's tax increase.”
“I think Europe's response will be more pragmatic than hard and soft. If Trump takes office again and announces tariffs, Europe will not react emotionally because they have experienced the futility of an emotional response over the past four years. Instead, they will pay more attention to details and specific issues and seek an exchange of interests with the United States,” Cui said.
Source: First Finance and economics



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